Economic Redpill: What's Happening?
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🎰 Redpill Roulette — Economy Edition satire + speculation layer included
Oct 21, 2025
Deadass Summary (what’s actually happening)
- Fed policy rate: FOMC cut 25 bps on Sep 17 to a target range of 4.00%–4.25%; next meeting Oct 28–29. Fresh Reuters poll says base case is two more 25 bp cuts (Oct & Dec). Fed Implementation Note (Sep 17, 2025) · FOMC calendar (accessed Oct 21, 2025) · Reuters poll (Oct 21, 2025)
- QT watch: Several street desks now expect a near-term halt to QT amid money‑market frictions (repo & SRF chatter). Reuters (Oct 20, 2025)
- Data fog: Due to the shutdown, BLS rescheduled September CPI to Oct 24; most other releases paused until services resume. BLS notice (Oct 10, 2025) · BLS CPI calendar (accessed Oct 21, 2025)
- Uncle Sam’s tab (FY2025): Deficit $1.775T, Receipts $5.235T, Outlays $7.010T. Gross interest (“Interest on the Public Debt”): $1.216T; Net interest (functional): $970B. Treasury MTS (final FY2025) (pdf, Oct 16, 2025)
- Rates picture: The 10‑year term premium sits positive (~0.56%, Oct 17), a key reason the long end can stay sticky even as the Fed trims. NY Fed: Term Premia (methodology) · MacroMicro (ACM 10y) (Oct 17, 2025)
- Housing finance: Freddie Mac’s PMMS shows the 30‑yr fixed at 6.27% (week of Oct 16). PMMS · Freddie Mac release (Oct 16, 2025)
- Crypto plumbing: Spot BTC ETFs continue to attract flows; IBIT net assets ≈ $89B (Oct 20). IBIT holdings crossed ~800k BTC earlier this month; U.S. ETFs saw record weekly inflows in early Oct. BlackRock IBIT page (Oct 20, 2025) · The Block (Oct 9, 2025) · Reuters (Oct 7, 2025)
The Wheel Stopped On…
🚨 1) Debt Doom Loop or Fiscal Sauna?
GovSpin: “We’ve got this.” — Deficit ticks down from pandemic peaks; buybacks ‘support liquidity.’
FringeLogic: “The carry is eating the budget; long end is re‑pricing Washington’s tab.”
Receipts now: FY2025 deficit $1.775T; gross interest $1.216T; net interest $970B (official MTS). Treasury has asked dealers about QT timing & buyback tweaks; strategists expect the term premium to keep the 10‑year sticky even with cuts.
Sources: Treasury MTS (FY2025) (Oct 16, 2025) · Reuters (Oct 17, 2025) · NY Fed: Term Premia (methodology) · MacroMicro (ACM 10y) (Oct 17, 2025) · Reuters strategist poll (Aug 11, 2025)
Proven: Large deficit; net & gross interest levels (official) Strong: Long end held up by term premium + supply Plausible: “Stealth curve control” via expanded buybacks/liquidity ops
🧱 2) CBDC: Control Grid or Congressional Roadkill?
GovSpin: “FedNow ≠ CBDC. No retail CBDC without a law.”
FringeLogic: “They’ll build wholesale rails + stablecoin rules and call it something else.”
Receipts now: Fed states it has made no decision and would only proceed with authorizing legislation. The House passed an anti‑CBDC bill (H.R. 1919) in July; not law. NY Fed’s RLN work is wholesale settlement, not a retail coin.
Sources: Federal Reserve CBDC FAQ (accessed Oct 21, 2025) · H.R.1919 text — “Passed the House” (July 17, 2025) · H.R.5403 text (May 2024) · NY Fed: RLN info hub (ongoing)
Proven: No U.S. retail CBDC; would require law Plausible: “Surveillance‑lite” via wholesale DLT + stablecoin frameworks Unproven: Near‑term retail CBDC rollout
🌏 3) De‑Dollarization: Slow Drip or Arterial Spray?
GovSpin: “Dollar dominance endures.”
FringeLogic: “BRICS is building parallel rails to leak demand from USD.”
Receipts now: Brazil’s BRICS presidency shelved a common currency push; focus is local‑currency settlement & payments. Traders supplying Russian oil to India are requesting yuan payments again. Analysts: no unified BRICS payment system yet—CIPS/SPFS are the scaffolds.
Sources: Reuters (Brazil, no BRICS currency) (Feb 13, 2025) · Reuters (yuan for India oil) (Oct 7, 2025) · GIS: BRICS payment system status (Oct 2025)
Strong: Payment fragmentation at the margins Disproven (for now): Imminent BRICS common currency
🏢 4) Commercial Real Estate: Zombie Apocalypse or K‑Shaped Reset?
GovSpin: “Stabilization with flight‑to‑quality.”
FringeLogic: “CRE is the next bank landmine.”
Receipts now: CBRE shows a widening gap: Prime vacancy ~14.5% vs non‑prime ~19.4% (Q2). Moody’s puts U.S. office vacancy at another record ~20.6–20.7%. The FSB flags vulnerabilities in non‑bank CRE (REITs/funds) and data gaps.
Sources: CBRE: Q2’25 U.S. Office Figures (Jul 31, 2025) · Moody’s Analytics (Jul 8, 2025) · FSB report (Jun 19, 2025)
Proven: Prime vs non‑prime bifurcation Plausible: Gradual regional‑bank pain if long rates hang near ~4% Weak: Immediate systemic bank crisis from CRE (data doesn’t show “imminent”)
₿ 5) Crypto: Lifeboat or Trapdoor?
GovSpin: “ETFs = safer access.”
FringeLogic: “Wall Street captured the on‑ramp; structure ≠ safety.”
Receipts now: U.S. spot BTC ETFs posted record weekly inflows in early Oct; IBIT sits around $89B AUM (Oct 20) and recently crossed ~800k BTC. Meanwhile, a 10X Research tally says retail lost ~$17B chasing “bitcoin‑treasury” stocks.
Sources: Reuters (record ETF inflows) (Oct 7, 2025) · IBIT facts (Oct 20, 2025) · The Block (IBIT >800k BTC) (Oct 9, 2025) · Business Insider (10X: $17B losses) (Oct 21, 2025) · Yahoo Finance (Oct 18, 2025) · Bloomberg (Oct 17, 2025)
Strong: ETFs institutionalized BTC exposure; flows matter Highly suspicious: Assuming wrappers remove risk
Tru Matrix 2.0 — Verdict Board
| Claim | Verdict | Primary receipts |
|---|---|---|
| Interest is now a top budget item | Proven — FY2025: Net interest ≈ $970B, Gross interest ≈ $1.216T | Treasury MTS (FY2025) |
| Long yields will sink fast with Fed cuts | Weak evidence — positive term premium & supply keep the long end sticky | ACM 10y · Reuters survey |
| U.S. will launch a retail CBDC soon | Disproven (for now) — Fed says no decision & needs a law; House bill not enacted | Fed CBDC FAQ · H.R. 1919 |
| BRICS common currency is imminent | Disproven — focus is local‑currency trade & payment links | Reuters |
| CRE collapse = imminent banking crisis | Plausible theory, not proven — stress concentrated; prime/non‑prime bifurcation | CBRE · FSB |
| Bitcoin ETFs are “safe” for retail | Highly suspicious — structure ≠ risk; $17B lost in proxy stocks | Business Insider · Yahoo |
Bullsh*t Breakdown (narrative collisions to watch)
- Interest math whiplash: “$1.216T interest” (gross) vs “~$970B net interest” (functional). Both shout “carry burden,” just different measures. MTS (FY2025)
- Policy in a blackout: The Fed is “data‑dependent” while data are delayed. That’s flying on instruments. BLS CPI reschedule · Reuters
- CBDC semantics: No “retail CBDC,” but wholesale tokenized rails + stablecoin rulebooks can still build a monitorable system. NY Fed RLN
More Questions Need To Be Asked
- QT endgame: If QT is paused soon, how do officials manage reserves without implying stealth YCC? Reuters
- Data fog risk: With Sept CPI singled out for release but other reports delayed, how “data‑dependent” is the next cut? BLS
- Term premium path: If ACM ~0.56% persists, what’s the “new neutral” for 10‑year yields vs 3.75–4.00% funds? ACM
- CRE refi wall: Which banks/funds are most exposed to non‑prime office refis into 2026, and what LGD is baked in? FSB
- ETF plumbing: If BTC ETF flows flip negative, who absorbs two‑way liquidity without air pockets? Farside ETF flows
Open Your Third Eye Files 👁️ (receipts & perspectives)
Official: Policy & Data
Mainstream: Macro & Markets
Official / Research
CRE & Housing
Final vibe check
- Soft‑landing PR is alive, but term premium + deficits + interest carry make the runway bumpy.
- CBDC panic? Overwrought for retail today. Watch wholesale rails and the stablecoin rulebook.
- BRICS threat? Not an axe to the dollar — more like paper cuts accumulating.
- CRE remains K‑shaped: trophy assets okay; 2010‑vintage space sweats.
- Crypto is both lifeboat and trapdoor — depends whether you bought the asset or the hype‑stock proxy.