OMB: Prepare RIF Plans: Oct. 1 Government Shutdown Looms

OMB: Prepare RIF Plans: Oct. 1 Government Shutdown Looms

📰 Suss News — Daily Topic Hunter Mode

SussTruth • Sep 25, 2025 Red Flag Siren 🚨
Suss‑O‑Meter: 7.5/10 “Power play with real teeth.”

Deadass Summary

OMB tells agencies: prepare Reduction‑in‑Force plans tied to a potential Oct 1 shutdown

The White House budget office sent agencies a memo on Sept 24 instructing them to prepare RIF (reduction‑in‑force) plans — not just the usual temporary furloughs — for programs that would lose funding on Oct 1 or are “not consistent with the President’s priorities.” That’s a sharp break from past shutdown practice and has already drawn legal‑political fire. Reuters, AP, CBS.

Context: leadership talks to avert a shutdown fell apart this week; the government’s funding deadline is midnight Sept 30 → Oct 1. Reuters 9/24, ABC News.

Receipts Check

Proven beyond a reasonable doubt

  • The memo exists and was distributed to agencies on Sept 24. It directs RIF planning for lapsed‑funding programs and those “not consistent with the President’s priorities.” CBS obtained the memo; Reuters; AP.
  • Departure from prior shutdown norms: shutdowns typically rely on temporary furloughs, not permanent RIFs. AP.
  • Statutory basis: RIFs are lawful tools for federal workforce reductions due to shortage of funds or reorganization (5 U.S.C. §§3501–3504; 5 CFR Part 351). LII §3501, §3502, 5 CFR Part 351, CRS.

Strong but not absolute evidence

  • Scale backdrop: Reuters reports roughly 300,000 federal civilian departures by year‑end, including ~154,000 buyouts by Sept 30 — indicating an ongoing downsizing context as the memo lands. Reuters.
  • Transparency gap: Unlike common practice, current detailed agency shutdown contingency plans were not posted by OMB at publication, per AP. AP.

Weak evidence / speculative

  • Claims that the memo is pure theater and won’t be used at all. Mechanically feasible? Yes. Likely across‑the‑board right away? Procedures and notice periods argue no. OPM RIF, 5 CFR 351.801.

Disproven

  • “RIFs are illegal during shutdowns.” False. RIF is lawful for lack of funds/reorg; it’s just not the typical shutdown tool. OPM RIF, 5 CFR 351, CRS.

Open Your Third Eye Files 👁️ (Law & Logistics)

  • Notice period: RIF requires 60 days’ notice; OPM can approve ≥30 days in unforeseen situations. OPM PDF, 5 CFR 351.801(b).
  • What RIF covers: separation/demotion due to shortage of funds, lack of work, reorg; it is not a performance/conduct tool. OPM, CRS.
  • Courts are circling: A federal judge (9/15) found OPM’s mass probationary firings unlawful — remedies limited, but scrutiny is on. GovExec, Federal News Network.
Shutdown clock
The funding deadline is midnight Sept 30 → Oct 1. Senate rejected stopgaps last week; talks were scrapped Sept 23–24. ABC, Reuters 9/19, Reuters 9/24.
GovSpin vs FringeLogic

GovSpin (Administration line)

Agencies must be ready. If a program’s money lapses, positions can be abolished. RIF planning is prudent and aligns the workforce to priorities. Reuters, AP.

FringeLogic (Skeptics/Opposition)

The memo weaponizes shutdown threats to purge non‑aligned staff under the fuzzy “priorities” clause — a move likely to trigger injunction fights and union backlash given recent rulings. GovExec, FNN.

Bullsh*t Breakdown

Terms they’ll throw at you

  • RIF = lawful federal layoff process with competitive areas, retention rules, and notice. OPM, 5 CFR 351.
  • “Not consistent with the President’s priorities” — exact memo phrasing quoted by CBS; expect disputes over political vs statutory functions. CBS.
  • “Contingency plans” — the public agency playbooks for shutdown status; AP notes they weren’t posted this round at time of writing. AP.

Tru Matrix 2.0 — Verdict Bars

Memo factual basis

Some RIF notices if shutdown hits

Rapid mass separations (immediate)

Service impact if furloughs + RIFs

Rationale: RIF notice windows, litigation risk, and recall logistics slow real‑world separations. 5 CFR 351.801, GovExec.

More Questions Need To Be Asked ❓
  1. Which specific programs are tagged as “not consistent with priorities”? Show line items, headcounts, locations. CBS.
  2. Will OPM approve 30‑day RIF notices government‑wide (351.801(b))? 5 CFR.
  3. Why no public posting of updated agency shutdown plans yet? Transparency matters. AP.
  4. How fast will unions seek injunctive relief if RIF notices drop — and in which venues? GovExec 9/15, FNN 9/13.
Quick Hits — Today’s Other High‑Impact Threads

TikTok “divest & bless” move

White House signaling an EO today (Thu, Sep 25) to certify a ByteDance divestment deal (Oracle/Silver Lake, et al.) satisfies the 2024 law — effectively clearing a U.S.-controlled spinout. Reuters 9/24, Reuters 9/22, White House EO 9/16.

Global shipping volatility

UNCTAD report flags reroutes (Red Sea/Hormuz), longer average voyages, and a downgraded 2025 growth outlook; volatility remains high. Reuters 9/24, UNCTAD Review 2025.

Crypto market structure shift

SEC approved generic listing standards enabling faster launch of spot crypto ETPs beyond BTC/ETH — a potential Q4 product wave. SEC PR 9/17, Reuters 9/18, Reuters 9/24.

UAP transparency drumbeat

House task force hearing pressed DoD/AARO for access; witnesses and members complained of opacity and reprisals. House Oversight 9/9, Stars & Stripes 9/10, Space.com 9/13.

Actionable Watchpoints (Non‑partisan)
  • If shutdown happens: expect immediate furloughs; any RIF separations follow 30–60+ day timelines. 5 CFR 351.801, OPM.
  • Courts & unions: fast filings could delay or narrow sweeping RIF attempts. GovExec, FNN.
  • Markets: shipping snags + shutdown risk + new crypto ETPs = volatility cocktail into Q4. Reuters, SEC.
Satire Break

“Conspiracy Carl”: “DOGE solving bureaucracy? Next patch notes: IRS now runs on memes.”

“Woke Wanda”: “Please. The only patch here is calling layoffs ‘efficiency’ while hiding the playbook.”

Jokes are jokes. For facts, see sources below.

Source Ledger — Receipts, Labels & Timestamps
  • Mainstream Kanishka Singh, “White House asks for mass firing plans ahead of possible government shutdown,” Reuters, Sept 25, 2025. Link
  • Mainstream Seung Min Kim, “White House budget office tells agencies to draft mass firing plans…,” AP, Sept 25, 2025. Link
  • Mainstream Aaron Navarro, “White House tells agencies to prepare for mass layoffs ahead of potential shutdown,” CBS News, Updated Sept 25, 2025 9:16 AM ET. Link
  • Mainstream Allison Pecorin, “The government could shut down in less than a week…,” ABC News, Sept 24, 2025. Link
  • Mainstream “US government shutdown looms; Senate rejects stopgap…,” Reuters, Sept 19, 2025. Link
  • Mainstream Richard Cowan & Nolan D. McCaskill, “Trump scraps meeting with Democrats…,” Reuters, Sept 24, 2025. Link
  • Official OPM, “Reductions in Force (RIF),” opm.gov, (current guidance). Link
  • Official (PDF) OPM, “RIF Basics” (60‑day notice; ≥30‑day with approval), Mar 2025. PDF
  • Official eCFR, 5 CFR Part 351 (esp. §351.801 notice), (current). Link
  • Law 5 U.S.C. §3501–3504 — RIF statutes (retention, etc.) via LII, (current). Link
  • CRS CRS In Focus IF12908, “Reductions in Force (RIFs): An Overview,” Feb 13, 2025. Link
  • Specialist Press Eric Katz, “Trump’s mass probationary firings were illegal, judge concludes…,” GovExec, Sept 15, 2025. Link
  • Specialist Press Jory Heckman, “Court finds OPM unlawfully directed mass firings…,” Federal News Network, Sept 13, 2025. Link
  • Mainstream Reuters, “US judiciary may not fully sustain operations past Oct 3 in shutdown,” Sept 24, 2025. Link
  • Mainstream Reuters, “Trump will sign TikTok executive order on Thursday, source says,” Sept 24, 2025. Link
  • Mainstream Reuters, “Trump expected to approve TikTok deal via EO later this week,” Sept 22, 2025. Link
  • Official White House, EO “Further Extending the TikTok Enforcement Delay,” Sept 16, 2025. Link
  • Mainstream Reuters, “Tariffs and conflict causing major volatility in shipping — UNCTAD,” Sept 24, 2025. Link
  • Official (PDF) UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport 2025, Sept 2025. PDF
  • Official SEC Press Release 2025‑121: “SEC Approves Generic Listing Standards for Commodity‑Based Trust Shares,” Sept 17, 2025. Link
  • Mainstream Reuters, “SEC paves way for crypto spot ETFs with new listing rules,” Sept 18, 2025. Link
  • Mainstream Reuters, “Crypto ETFs set to flood US market as regulator streamlines approvals,” Sept 24, 2025. Link
  • Official U.S. House Oversight (Task Force), “Hearing Wrap‑Up: Government Must Be More Transparent About UAPs,” Sept 9, 2025. Link
  • Mainstream (military) Stars & Stripes, “Lawmakers accuse Pentagon of lack of transparency over UAPs,” Sept 10, 2025. Link
  • Science press Leonard David, “UAP witnesses criticize Pentagon UFO office in Congressional hearing…,” Space.com, Sept 13, 2025. Link

Note: Headlines and timestamps reflect what was publicly visible as of Sept 25, 2025. Where official guidance is evergreen (OPM/eCFR), we cite the controlling text and/or latest published updates.

Today’s Key Headlines — Quick Links
Bullseye Transparency
What’s rock‑solid
OMB sent the RIF‑prep memo (9/24); content includes the “priorities” clause. Shutdown deadline is 9/30 → 10/1. RIF law/procedures are as cited.
Where inference lives
Likelihood & pace of actual separations: we weigh statutes, notice windows, and recent court posture to conclude slow ramp vs instant pink‑slips.
Where we’re skeptical
Claims of “no legal leg” for any RIFs, and sweeping immediate purges day‑one of a shutdown. The paper trail makes both unlikely.
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